Forecast Shows Decline in MCS Enrollment

By David Avitabile

MIDDLEBURGH - Middleburgh Central School enrollment, which stabilized this year after years of decline, may once again be decreasing in the next three years, according to a three-year forecast of the district.

The enrollment forecast was part of a long-range financial plan presented by MCS school business manager Robyn Bhend at the December 11 school board meeting.

Earlier this school year, officials announced that after year of After years of enrollment decreases, MCS enrollment hit a plateau, but Ms. Bhend said that student numbers could soon be on the way down again.

In November, MCS officials said that on the official enrollment day for New York State school districts was in October, MCS had an enrollment of 656 students for this school year. This was the same as for the 2023-24 school year.

Ms. Bhend said that number could decline for the next three years and reach a low of 604 for the 2027-28 school year.

After this year's 656, the projected student count for the 2025-26 school year is 618. That number could fall to 613 for the 2026-27 school year and 604 in 2027-28.

The declines are projected due to smaller than normal incoming kindergarten classes for next few years. While the incoming kindergarten class numbered 45 two years ago, this years kindergarten class numbers 32 and is expected to be 34 next year. Projections are for 35 the following two years.

Aside from this year's graduating class of 51 and the ninth grade class of 62, all under MCS classes are under 50 and not expected to increase in the next few years.

According to Ms. Bhend's projections:

* The pre-K enrollment will go from 33 tis year, 32 next year, and 35 in both 2026-27 and 2027-28.

* The kindergarten student count will go from 32 this year to 34 next year and 35 in each 2026-27 and 2027-28.

* The enrollment in grades one through 3 will go from 135 this year to 120 next year, 111 in 2026-27 and 101 in 2027-28.

* The student count in grades four through six is expected to go from 129 this year to 127 next year, 129 in 2026-27, and 135 in 2027-28.

* The enrollment in grades seven and eight is projected to increase from 85 this year to 92 next year, 90 in 2026-27, and 81 in 2027-28.

* The student count in grades nine to 11 is projected to go from 150 this year to 147 next year and the year after, and 133 in 2027-28.

* The enrollment in the 12th grade is expected to go from 51 this year to 44 next year and the year after and 62 in 2027-28 (when the current ninth grade class graduates.)

* The number of out-of-district students is projected to go from 24 this to 22 in each of the next three years.

Total enrollment totals over the last eight years are:

* This year: 656.

* 2023-24: 656.

* 2022-23: 675.

* 2021-22: 689.

* 2020-21: 671.

* 2019-20: 732.

* 2018-19: 748.

* 2017-18: 759.

The district still has not recovered from the drop after the pandemic (732 in 2019-20 to 671 in 2020-21). Since that time, more students are being home-schooled or have moved out of the district.

Officials have noted that the decrease in enrollment is not unique to Middleburgh as schools across the county and region are showing decreases in recent enrollment numbers.

Total enrollment numbers were about 1,000 in the late 1980s and early 1990s and has been dropping ever since. The peak class enrollment was the senior class of 1964 which totaled about 110.