MCS Enrollment May Continue to Decline

By David Avitabile

MIDDLEBURGH - Middleburgh Central School enrollment will likely continue to shrink in the next three years.

In a three-year financial plan through the 2028-29 school year, Business administrator Robyn Bhend said the enrollment will likely drop by another four percent by the end of the next three years. The drop will about two percent in the elementary school and six percent in the secondary school. The projected decrease is nothing drastic but could affect state aid in the future.

The number of total students may drop from the current 633 to 607 in three years, Ms. Bhend said.

After hitting a plateau last year, MCS saw a dip for the new school year, and it does not look like it will change for the foreseeable future.

Enrollment has seen a steady drop for more than a decade and with smaller incoming classes, the decrease in students will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Middleburgh enrollment has been on a decline for the last several years, with the biggest drop after the pandemic.

The projected enrollment in the next three years are:

* 2026-27: 630.

* 2027-28: 625.

* 2028-29: 607.

Total enrollment totals over the last few years are:

* This year: 633.

* 2024-25: 656.

* 2023-24: 656.

* 2022-23: 675.

* 2021-22: 689.

* 2020-21: 671.

* 2019-20: 732.

* 2018-19: 748.

* 2017-18: 759.

Currently, MCS has 155 employees, including 81 teachers, according to Ms. Bhend. By the end of the current school year on June 30, 2026, seven employees will have 30 years of service and 15 will be 55. Ms. Bhend said three-year projections show expenditures going from an estimated $24.2 million in 2025-26 to $27.9 million in three years. Revenues, though, may not keep up with spending as Ms. Bhend estimated revenues as $24.2 million this year and $25.26 million in three years. State aid may go from $12.86 million to $13.5 million in three years. The tax levy may increase from $10.56 million to $11 million.

In a worst case scenario, Ms. Bhend said, where no appropriated fund balance or reserves were applied as revenues, there was no increase in Foundation Aid, and with using current staff through 2029 though there are possible retirements and/or attrition over the next three years, and pension costs are based on actual payroll, not projections, the shortfall/deficit could grow greatly by the 2028-29 school year. This year, the district could end $77,391in the positive. The shortfall/deficit could be $772,000 next year, $1.65 million in the 2027-28 school year, and $2.63 million by 2028-29.

The numbers may not turn out as bad as they look now, Ms. Bhend said.

"It looks scary," she told board members, noting that this year started with a $700,000 deficit.

"We're actually in a pretty good budget place already. We're not freaking out about these numbers." The numbers will be different.

Officials will look at healthcare costs and there are funds in reserve that can be used.

"We're in a very good spot," Superintendent Mark Place said.

Ms. Bhend said it is important to do a three-year financial projection.

It allows decision makers to set long-term priorities and work towards goals, rather than making choices based only on the needs and politics of the moment. The projects revenues and expenditures for years into the future illustrate what will happen to a government’s ability to pay for and provide services, given a set of policy and economic assumptions.

A plan can help identify and manage potential fiscal difficulties before crises emerge, Ms. Bhend said. Fiscal stability and responsibility are critical aspects to ensure the success of a school district.