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NY-19 Decides: Election Night Live Blog

Written By Cicero on 6/26/18 | 6/26/18

11:35 PM - With all but one precinct reporting, here are the unofficial but final for tonight results:

Delgado - 7,690 (22%: won Dutchess, Montgomery, Schoharie, and Ulster Counties)
Rhodes - 6,242 (17.9%: won Columbia, Delaware, Sullivan Counties)
Ryan - 6,194 (17.7%: won Broome and Rensselaer Counties)
Flynn - 4,608 (13.2%: won Greene and Otsego Counties)
Beals - 4,608 (13.2%)
Clegg - 3,873 (11.1%)
Collier - 1,700 (4.9%)

11:21 PM - The New York Times has called NY-19 for Antonio Delgado, who currently has just over 22% of the vote in with only a few precincts remaining.

11:20 PM - With all precincts in, Rhodes has won Columbia County with 28.89% of the vote. While he has won three counties tonight, it's likely not enough to keep up with Delgado's four counties and impressive vote shares.

11:16 PM - Delgado can add tiny Montgomery County to his list of victories tonight, as he claims the county with 28.3% of the vote to Flynn's 19% and Ryan's 17%.

11:10 PM - Ryan has won Rensselaer County with 29.3% of the vote according to the New York Times. With almost all precincts in - again, according to the Times - it seems as if Delgado will win with roughly 22% of the vote.

11:04 PM - There's not that many precincts left (only 79 are still uncounted according to the state Board of Elections) and Delgado is leading Rhodes by roughly 1,300 votes. Also - roughly 32,000 Democrat votes have been counted thus far - roughly 60% more than in 2016's primary.

11:02 PM - Ulster County is finally complete and Delgado has won it by only 150 votes over Kingston native Dave Clegg. Ryan placed third and Rhodes was a close but just far enough fourth.

10:50 PM - Rhodes is the winner in Delaware County, beating out Flynn by only 32 votes for a 21.43% to 19.25% victory in the rural area. With 364 precincts in out of 458 district wide, the amount of votes left to surpass Delgado's current 4.5% lead are becoming harder to find.

10:43 PM - Flynn has won Otsego County with 37% of the vote there tonight. Delgado came in second with 15%, Ryan placed third with 12%, and Otsego County native Erin Collier could only manage 10% in her home - she is currently last overall with under 5% of the vote district wide.

10:37 PM - Rhodes is the winner in Sullivan County tonight, as the young candidate has claimed 28% of the vote there while Delgado picked up 18% and Clegg placed third with 17%. Delgado still leads overall with 22%.

10:31 PM - Delgado has carried his home county of Dutchess with 28.22%. Ryan was second with 21.59% and Rhodes was third with 19.16%. Solid result for Delgado, but if he doesn't end up pulling this off - it will be because he didn't perform as strongly as he should have in Dutchess.

10:25 PM - Brian Flynn is absolutely crushing it in Otsego County, carrying about 37% of the vote with 18 of 49 precincts reporting. Rhodes' remains ahead in Delaware while it's a four way battle in Sullivan and Clegg is inching his way back in Ulster. Delgado leads overall with 22%.

10:21 PM - Also we now know the answer to my question of "Is the blue wave actually coming?" With 207 of 458 precincts reporting - or, less than half of the district - more votes have already been counted in tonight's primary than in 2016 total.

10:18 PM - Despite there only being 46 votes tonight in the tiny sliver of Broome County that is in the 19th District, Pat Ryan has won the county with 23.9% of the vote - or, 11 votes total. However, every vote counts with how this night is shaping up currently.

10:14 PM - With 137 of 458 precincts reporting, Delgado is leading the pack with 23.47% of the vote. Ryan is stuck in the 18% range while Rhodes is farther back at just above 15%. Flynn is now leading his home county of Greene with new votes just being reported, while Rhodes is slightly leading in Delaware at the moment.

10:07 PM - I was told today by a voter in Schoharie County that he believed Delgado would win because of the amount of mailers his campaign has been sending out. I can see this playing out, because while other candidates have been to Schoharie County more, I've been receiving mailers from Delgado's camp weekly for months. Also -- with a majority of precincts now reporting from Dutchess and Ulster, Delgado is leading in both.

9:59 PM - Rhodes is leading early in Columbia County, but Delgado is leading everywhere else with the exception of Ulster, which Dave Clegg is currently carrying with 22.25% of the vote with roughly a quarter of the precincts in.

9:53 PM - With 40 of 52 precincts reporting in Greene County, Delgado leads with 24.8% while Flynn and Beals are neck and neck at roughly 18% each.

9:50 PM - Although the New York State Board of Elections website is historically slow, it currently has Delgado barely leading Rhodes with 30 of 458 precincts reporting from across the district (not including Schoharie County, so Delgado is actually in a better position than the site is reporting).

9:42 PM - Early results in Ulster County have Dave Clegg leading the pack with 8 of 79 precincts reporting - although this may all be from his home base of Kingston whilst Delgado is leading heavily with 3 of 36 precincts reporting in Dutchess County.

9:32 PM - With all precincts reporting in Schoharie County, Delgado has carried the rural county by a strong plurality: Delgado - 30.2%; Flynn - 16%; Ryan - 15.9%; Rhodes - 12.3%; Collier - 11.3%; Beals - 8.7%; Clegg - 5.5%.

9:15 PM - It's the Antonio Delgado show early tonight, as the Rhinebeck native is leading Schoharie County with 12 of 16 precincts reporting. Delgado is steady at 31.7% while Flynn has edged into second place and Ryan is barely behind at third.

9:06 PM - With the first results rolling in from Schoharie County (3 of 16 precincts reporting) - Delgado has 30.9%, Ryan has 16.8%, and Flynn has 15.4% thus far.

9:00 PM - Polls are now closed - now the fun begins. Things to watch as the smaller precincts start reporting: how much of the vote is Erin Collier going to receive in Otsego County and will it dent Brian Flynn's early momentum there?

Original Post:

Image originally used by Chronogram Mazagine
Following roughly a year of continuous campaigning, advertising, and retail politics across a congressional district larger than Connecticut and Rhode Island combined, Democratic residents of New York's 19th District are finally choosing their nominee to stand against incumbent Republican John Faso in the fall election to come. 

With all ballots nearly cast and election workers to begin the process of reporting them soon, there are several items to keep an eye on tonight as results start coming in:
  • How will Dutchess County impact the overall race? Polls opened in Dutchess at six this morning, while everyone else in the massive district had to wait until noontime. Dutchess is considered Antonio Delgado's base of support - so how strong his margin there is could tell the story for all of NY-19. 
  • Is the Rhodes wave real? Gareth Rhodes has had a really strong final week of the campaign with the New York Times, several unions, and seemingly a wave of late support arriving at just the right time, but is it too little too late and can the wave outwork Brian Flynn's early base of support in rural NY-19?
  • Is the blue wave actually coming? In 2016 fewer than 20,000 NY-19 Democrats came to select a nominee in the inevitable primary coronation of Zephyr Teachout against Will Yandik while slightly more than 16,000 Republicans participated in the bruising fight between Faso and Andrew Heaney. If the often touted wave is coming, national and local politicos will be able to tell by comparing these primary turnout rates. 
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